Unlike the Grand National which has thrown up many surprise winners such as the 2009 hero Mon Mome who romped home at 100/1, The Derby tends to be a race that favours the first three or four in the betting list, writes Elliot Slater.
Although the Grand National 2010 could well produce another long-priced winner, the last 11 Epsom Derbies have all been won by horses figuring prominently in the betting, with the longest odds winner during that period being the 7/1 chance Sinndar in 2000. Four of the last eleven victors were sent off favourite, and last year the mighty Sea The Stars was surprisingly allowed to go off as second favourite at 11/4 but comfortably disposed of the 9/4 market leader Fame And Glory by nearly two lengths.
Although Epsom is a completely unique course and there are many horses who fail to produce their best on the undulating track with the steep camber in the home straight, it clearly brings out the best in top horses as very few subsequent middle-distance champions have failed to figure prominently on the big day.
In the last 35 years the biggest surprise winner was the Luca Cumani-trained High Rise, who raced to victory in 1998 at odds of 20/1. His famous win followed other mild surprises during a four year period during which Benny The Dip (11/1), Shaamit (12/1) and Lammtarra (14/1) all won.
Prior to this period the longest priced winner in the modern era was in 1974 when Snow Knight, ridden by Brian Taylor, stunned the betting public with a rare 50/1 success.
On all the evidence of the Epsom Derby statistics over the last 30 years it seems clear that when looking for a potential winner you need not look much further than the first four in that year's Derby odds.
Although anything can happen in racing, the records suggest that the bookmakers and the betting public normally have their finger pretty much on the pulse of the market and narrow down their search to the horses who statistically take plenty of beating.
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