The WRU website lists Wales's recent form as LLLDL. The draw was against Fiji. If Wales are to have any hope of winning the Six Nations, they must surely beat England first up, in one of only two home fixtures.
If they lose, it could on the face of things be a painful season. The good news, however, is that it wouldn't be the end of the world. There are already several reasons for Welsh fans to be cautiously optimistic about events in New Zealand.
Wales have discovered George North, winner of the SportingWales Rising Star award. George North may not be quite as good as he first appeared, but two tries against the world champions on your debut aged 18 isn't a bad start.
Wales came very close to beating those same world champions in November, and it just so happens they'll be meeting them again in Pool D. They face Fiji in a potential elimination match at the end of the group stage, but have had enough warnings to take nothing for granted. As quarter-final underdogs they ran England close in 2003; maybe this is the year they go one better, although the rugby betting indicates they face a tough task to do so.
So one or two defeats for Wales would not spell doom and gloom. If they can build throughout the championship, they have the perfect finale: Saturday night in Paris in the last game of the Six Nations. Win there and everything that goes before will suddenly seem far less important. After all, the Six Nations betting suggests the tournament will be really tight, so there is no reason why Wales can't win it.
Wales have previous here. In their final Six Nations game of 2007, the last World Cup year, Wales welcomed an England side still with a mathematical chance of winning the championship. The hosts had lost all four of their matches so far. And what happened? Wales started with a flourish and never looked back.
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