Thursday, April 7, 2011

The Masters - who will conditions suit?

The checklist for picking a Masters winner is long. A decent Augusta record, good length off the tee, an ability to stop the ball on the fast greens and an unflappable temperament are good things to look out for, but there are so many other factors that can point punters in certain directions, with course conditions top of the list.

Thunderstorms and heavy winds earlier in the week suggested the players could be in for a torrid time, but fair weather is forecast to alleviate the dilemma of club choices in gusty conditions that so often causes problems and those looking to place golf bets should remember this.

The nightmare conditions of 2007, when Zach Johnson won with a score of +1 and the average round was 75.88. Last year, with the weather set fair, Phil Mickelson was victorious on -16, with the average round 73.30.

Unpredictable conditions level the playing field, as it increases the chances of a less-fancied challenger making hay when the sun is out and the favourites being hamstrung by a windy and wet course. The big names should rise to the top after all.

It is well-known that a good putting game is needed at Augusta more than anywhere, but there is some leeway in the first round. Pin positions become tougher as the tournament wears on and the greens invariably speed up, making putting mistakes more expensive.

This makes the first round leader market wide open – Tom Watson and Sandy Lyle shot opening 67 and 69 respectively last year – as inconsistent putters are not punished. Rory McIlroy is one to watch in this market, as his aggressive approach will make plenty of birdie opportunities, if not throughout all four rounds.

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