Outside of the hugely competitive handicap events at the forthcoming Cheltenham Festivals, there are few championship races that look quite as wide open as the Irish Independent Arkle Chase on the opening day of the meeting, writes Elliot Slater.
It's hard to say with any certainty just which one of the three market principals - Medermit, Ghizao or Finian's Rainbow – will actually be sent off favourite, and each one of the trio will arrive at the starting tape for the two-mile novice chasing event with strong claims based on solid form coming into the race. Having given the matter plenty of thought, I have chosen to look slightly further down the ante-post list for the race and keep coming back to the chance of Ireland's Realt Dubh, currently on offer at odds of around 8/1. Lots of punters will be focused on the Cheltenham Gold Cup betting, but the Arkle Chase looks set to be an intriguing contest.
There are very few form lines connecting the form of this season's British and Irish novice chasers so it is hard to say conclusively that the British horses are better – as the market suggests. Possibly because so many of the Irish races have been run on very testing ground, bookmakers and punters alike are assuming that only heavy conditions will suit the Irish raiders, but as the ground is likely to be on the soft side of good on the opening day of the fixture and there will be a beautiful covering of grass, that, in my opinion, rather negates the ground argument.
Realt Dubh has won three of his five novice chases (two at Grade 1 level), jumps well, has a fine cruising speed, and a willing attitude. He ran creditably at Cheltenham in 2009 over hurdles when seventh to Mikael d'Haguenet over a trip in excess of his best, is in fine form, and represents the Noel Meade/Paul Carberry team that should always be respected.
I would suggest that 8/1 is a very fair price, and should the ground ease before the opening day of the four-day extravaganza those odds will have appeared very generous indeed compared to his likely SP.
Meanwhile, the Grand National betting prices have been fluctuating vastly since the publication of the official weights last month.
Punters clearly can't decide who has the best chance of landing the race, and favouritism is likely to be contested until the off.
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