Monday, November 14, 2011

Breeders' Cup – Saturday

Friday at Churchill Downs provides the starter on the Breeders' Cup menu, with the main meal very much saved for the Saturday. Here we look at some of the key pointers and trends which have come to light over the years and may help you towards a few winners on Saturday night.

The Juvenile Turf has only been around for four years but all of the winners of this race have won on turf before and additionally they have reached the first three in another stakes race over 7F plus and no winner has ever won over less than 6F.The Turf Sprint is one where the winners have all exhibited a very consistent profile – all three previous winners of this race have won half of their starts in previous turf sprints. Four horses in the field fit the profile, they are California Flag, Caracortado, Havelock and Regally Ready and they look the ones that backers should concentrate on. Those looking at the racing betting should remember this.

The Dirt Mile is another Breeders' Cup race that has only seen four runnings but all of the winners had landed at least a Grade 2 race or reached the first three in a Grade 1 that year. In addition all of the previous winners have won over the distance and three in the field this year fit the bill – Caleb's Posse, Jersey Town and Wilburn.The Turf is one race where the Europeans have held the upper hand over the past 11 years winning eight of those runnings and have taken the race in the last three years. Once again the Europeans look to have a strong challenge and it's hard to see the home side fending off the visitors. Those who bet on racing should bear this in mind.

The Breeders' Cup Mile promises to be the race of the meeting and is another where the Europeans have proved very strong in the past years and this year they are equally strong with Goldikova and Strong Suit heading the market with very little plausible US opposition.

Concluding the card is the Breeders' Cup Classic, only Raven's Pass has been successful for Europe since 2001 and this year the European challenge hinges on the O'Brien trained So You Think. Raven's Pass was successful on a synthetic surface but on traditional dirt which the race will be run on this year only two European horses (Arazi and Sheikh Albadou) have ever proved up to the challenge at Churchill Downs. Many pundits think that So You Think will be suited by the surface but on all known form he faces a mammoth task against the US horses which are used the surface.

Saturday evening sees nine fantastic Breeders' Cup races and on November 5th we should see plenty of fireworks.

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