Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Weekend racing Trends

This weekend brings some outstanding televised action from Haydock and Ascot – with three races in particular taking the eye, not only do they stand out as races in their own right but they are also sure to provide some clues for big races to come this year.

Here are some of the dominant trends from the last 10 years around those races to help those looking for betting tips this weekend.

Taking the races in chronological order brings us first to the Reynoldstown Novices' Chase at Ascot where 8/10 winners have featured in the first two in the market and 9/10 winners won their last race. It also pays to be fairly lightly raced over fences as horses that have had three or less runs over fences have won 80% of the races from 55% of the runners. This is not a race to be backing horses priced at 5-1 or better they have produced just one winner from 29 runners over the past 10 seasons.

The Rendlesham Hurdle has often been seen as a worthy adjunct to the World Hurdle, with neither Big Buck's nor Grands Crus entered in this it's unlikely it will have a huge impact on the World Hurdle betting this year but the race still has some decent positive trends to help us out. Positive trends dominate in this race – the favourite has a good record winning five of the last nine runnings of the race. It also pays to make sure that your selection ran a respectable race last time out, 8/10 finished in the first four last time out and if you like course statistics then 8 of the last 10 winners raced at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Haydock.

Last but not least we see the Betfair Chase come under scrutiny where 9/10 winners have been priced at 15-2 or less, with five winning favourites included in those. So the market has provided a good guide to this race. This is not a race where a recent run is needed though and plenty of winners have come here as fresh horses - 6/10 winners have had a break of at least seven weeks, so it could be that being fresh helps a great deal especially if the horse comes from a race at Ascot, Cheltenham or Kempton - those three courses have provided the 8 out of the last 10 winners.

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