Friday, January 27, 2012

Five Championship Race Statistics

Statistics and trends are an important part of the Cheltenham Festival. Here are five from the Championship events at the meeting. All of these events (apart from the Ryanair) have a long and rich history and the statistics and trends behind them have plenty of data to back them up.

Stan James Champion Hurdle

Horses that won last time out are very strong statistically in this race and just following those types of horses that were successful last time out landed the one-two again last year. Only four horses in the last 28 runnings of this race have won without winning on their previous outing. A powerful statistic to consider in the Champion Hurdle when attempting to find the winner. Fans of the Cheltenham betting should remember this.

Queen Mother Champion Chase

Previous Festival form is a recurring theme in the championship races at the Festival, notably the Queen Mother Champion Chase and 20 of the last 27 winners have won or finished placed at this meeting in the past. Those looking for 2012 Cheltenham betting tips need to bear this in mind.

Ryanair Chase

Only a seven year history to work with here but the one standout statistic is that all six winners and five of the runner-ups in that period have previously won at Cheltenham. If there is a race where course form counts this is it.

Ladbrokes World Hurdle

With Big Buck’s likely to dominant here there is little chance of the Irish breaking their 17 year hoodoo in this race or a five-year-old being a major challenger as they haven’t won the race since its inception in 1972.

Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup

A fascinating clash this year between Kauto Star and Long Run will be the major storyline in the race but the fly in the ointment could be Grands Crus – a novice. if he takes his chance, no novice has won since 1974 but, arguably of more relevance, is that only a true great in Dawn Run, who was having only her fifth start over fences when winning an historic renewal in 1986, has won the Gold Cup for horses with less than six chase starts since Mill House in 1963 who had five previous chase starts to his name. This will be Grand Crus’ fifth chase start if he lines up to here, assuming he has a prep-run between the Feltham and Festival. He would add another dimension to what is already a fascinating head-to-head clash.

No comments:

Post a Comment